Causation is a central concept in positivism, which emphasizes nomothetic lawlike regularities between causes and effects hume, 1955. In its most basic form, this involves counterfactuals of the form, had an event of kind a occurred, it would have caused an event of kind b. Russell 19 observed that the fundamental laws he was thinking of the differential equations of classical mechanics but the same holds. Based on a crowdsourced truth value judgment experiment, we provide empirical evidence challenging two classical views in semantics, and we develop a novel account of counterfactuals that combines ideas from inquisitive semantics and causal reasoning. Should special science laws be written into the semantics. A fresh, interdisciplinary approach to causal and counterfactual thought. First, there is the split between event and fact or state of affairs theories. Pdf what is offered here is an interpretation of humes views on causation. My dissertation maintains that the best theory of free will is an agentcausal view of the sort proposed by timothy oconnor. Philosophy 232, lecture 15 causation iii counterfactual theories. Counterfactual theories of causation stanford encyclopedia of. Any definition of causation that appeals to counterfactuals will face problems in cases where there are isomorphic patterns of counterfactual. In this paper, i examine the advantages of applying d.
If it had been the case that p, then it would have been the case that q is true at a world w just in case q is true at all the possible pworlds closest to w. Cold war historiography vividly illustrates how the selection of the counterfactual question to be asked generally. We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Christoph hoerl, teresa mccormack and sarah beck eds. Counterfactuals and explanation boris kment on the received view, counterfactuals are analyzed using the concept of closeness between possible worlds. One of the chief motivations for counterfactual theories of causation lewis 1973a is the link between counterfactual claims and causal.
In cases of symmetric overdetermination, there will not be any counterfactual dependence between causes and effects. If we thought that causation ought to be analyzed as an intrinsic relation between events, then constantconjunction analyses and counterfactual analyses would. This aspect of causation is wellcaptured by counterfactual theories. As its name suggests, the intrinsicness thesis appeals to the notion that the causal structure of a process is. We think of a cause as something that makes a difference, and the difference it makes it makes must be a difference.
Our counterfactual simulation model maintains the view that peoples causal attributions are intrinsically connected to whether the event of interest made a difference to the outcome. While it might not be literally humes view, it is certainly consistent. This talk explores the counterfactual conception of causation, which is the idea that an event c causes. Pdf hume, causation and counterfactuals researchgate.
Adam elga has presented an antithermodynamic process as a counterexample to lewiss default semantics for counterfactuals. Counterfactuals university of california, berkeley. The counterfactual analysis of causation became a focus of philosophical debate after the 1973 publication of the late david lewiss groundbreaking paper. Or, in other words, where, if the first object had not been, the second never. It sacrifices lewiss aim of defining causation in terms of counterfactual dependence. The true potential of the counterfactual approach to causation did not become clear until counterfactuals became better understood through the development of possible world semantics in the early 1970s. Consideration of this type of case has led many decision. Pdf understanding counterfactuals and causation christoph. Pdf causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. The basic idea of counterfactual theories of causation is that the meaning of causal claims can be explained in terms of counterfactual conditionals of the form if a had not occurred, c would not have occurred.
One notable candidate from the contemporary philosophical literature is halls thesis of intrinsicness. Lewis 1 introduction lewis proposes a theory of causation on which the attempt to characterise causal regularities in terms of lawlike regularities is abandoned. Causation, counterfactuals, and competitive advantage. If a had not occurred, then b would not have occurred either. Paul among the many philosophers who hold that causal facts1 are to be explained in terms ofor. Traditionally, philosophers have primarily been interested in connections between causal and counterfactual claims on the level of meaning or truthconditions. We may define a cause to be an object followed by another, and where all the objects, similar to the first, are followed by objects similar to the second. Twelve original essays from a team of leading philosophers and psychologists. Viewed more generally, counterfactual theories of causation form a category that also encompasses a number of other approaches that have emerged or come. It appears that any value in hoflers analysis lies not in counterfactuals, but in hypotheticals that is, ex ante hypotheses about what data would show if a certain assumption were true. Causation, counterfactuals and probabilities in philosophy. Contributors niall ferguson is fellow and tutor in modern history at jesus college, oxford.
If not, then clearly the rest of s was not sufficient. Pdf causation is an essential concept in epidemiology, yet there is no single, clearly articulated definition for the discipline. Causation, counterfactuals, and competitive advantage 1247 in conceptions of causation and the implications for analyses of competitive advantage. Thirty years after lewiss paper, this book brings together some of the most important recent work connecting. However, the paper argues that in some circumstances rr 2 can be sufficient to prove causation at law. Counterfactual definition of counterfactual by the free. Causation and counterfactuals edited by john collins, ned hall, and l. Marianne talbot gives the second talk in a series on the nature of causation at oxford. Lewiss counterfactual theory of causation christian loew. The easiest way to see that the rest of s does not suffice is to ask whether e would still have occurred, had the rest of s occurred in cs absence. This collection of original essays on the topics of causation and explanation offers readers a stateoftheart view of current work in these areas. Instead, lewis proposes a counterfactual theory of causation.
The first explicit definition of causation in terms of counterfactuals was, surprisingly enough, given by hume, when he wrote. Counterfactual theories of causation bibliography philpapers. When one asserts that one event a causes another distinct event b, then it seems that one is committed to the counterfactual. The outstanding reaction of jonathan schaffer and boris kment is revisionary. Lewis counterfactual theory of causation summary an account only of deterministic, token causation. According to common judicial standard, judgment in favor of plaintiff should be made if and only if it is more probable than not that the defendants action was the cause for the plaintiffs damage or death. The best known and most thoroughly elaborated counterfactual theory of causation is david lewiss theory in his 1973b. Counterfactuals and explanation princeton university. Counterfactuals and the second law1 barry loewer i will be discussing a kind of conditional or counterfactual typically expressed in english by. The upshot is that counterfactuals will be evidentially relevant to causation even if causation. Hence, the causal relation between c and e cannot be reduced to the relation of counterfactual dependence between c and e.
And can there be an adequate theory of explanation. The book is notable for its interdisciplinary character, and the essays, by distinguished authors and important rising scholars, will be of interest to a wide readership, including philosophers, computer scientists, and economists. The counterfactual analysis jonathan bennett syracuse university two distinctions philosophical theories of causation can be split two ways, into four groups. Counterfactual reasoning has multiple applications to forensic analysis of failures in safetycritical sys tems. Causation, counterfactuals, and the third factor tim maudlin in his classic paper causation 1973a, david lewis urged that regularity accounts of causation, having continually failed to resolve the counterexamples and problematic cases with which they were faced, be abandoned in. Lewiss counterfactual theory of causation to the philosophy of historiography. Hamburg business and german politics in the era of inflation 18971927 1995, which was shortlisted for the history today book of the year award. Paul a bradford book the mit press cambridge, massachusetts london, england. One philosophical approach to causation sees counterfactual dependence as the key to the explanation of causal facts.
Causation, counterfactuals and probabilities in philosophy and legal thinking florence gsell1 determining whether the law could and should have its own definition of causation which would be based solely on its own logic and objectives and would stay independent of philosophical or scientific accounts is a. Lewis himself claimed that counterfactuals are not transitive, while maintaining that. Event calculus is introduced in order to facilitate discussions on causation and the semantics of counterfactuals. The power of possible causation phil dowe university of queensland 1. Counterfactuals and causal decision theory aporia vol. Understanding counterfactuals, understanding causation. Should special science laws be written into the semantics of. Counterfactuals and spheres appendix 1 mental causation. Traditionally, philosophers have primarily been interested in connections between causal and counterfactual claims. However, the role of counterfactuals in this lesson, beyond the implicit definition of causation, is unclear. Causation, counterfactuals, and the third factor tim maudlin in his classic paper causation 1973a, david lewis urged that regularity accounts of causation, having continually failed to resolve the counterexamples and problematic cases with which they were faced, be abandoned in favor of an alternative strat. Usually the counterfactuals on offer are proposed as causal surrogates. I will mainly be dealing with problems regarding the transitivity of counterfactuals and the transitivity of causation. This position is defended against the widely held judicial and academic view that epidemiological evidence must be accompanied by something else, particular to the case at hand, if it is to have probative force for specific causation.
Most counterfactual analyses have focused on claims of the form event c caused event e, describing singular or token or actual causation. Causation and counterfactuals john collins, ned hall, l. Paul one philosophical approach to causation sees counterfactual dependence as the key to the explanation of causal facts. Whether or not e occurs depends on whether or not c occurs. A cause, according to lewis in his 1973 article causation, was something that makes a difference, and the difference it makes must be a difference from what would have happened without it. Pdf causation, counterfactuals and competitive advantage. Throughout the paper ill shorten this locution and say had a occurred, a would. Causation, miscellaneous in metaphysics categorize this paper. Causation and explanation psillos pdf how is causation linked with explanation. Positivist researchers follow a hypotheticodeductive. We think of a cause as something that makes a difference, and the difference it makes it. Jul 11, 2019 causation and explanation psillos pdf how is causation linked with explanation.
The signature of agentcausation is that an agent acts freely only if there is an event having a cause, where this cause is not some other event but. Counterfactual theories of causation stanford encyclopedia. More specifically, he defined causality in terms of possible counterfactual worlds. Counterfactuals and causation are closely connected so a word about how causation comes into fundamental physics is in order. Causal relations holds in virtue of facts about counterfactual dependence.
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